Communications

By Doug Heye

RNC Communications Director

Hotline On Call has a post up this morning that portends looming trouble for the Democrats come November. In analyzing the returns from yesterday’s primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, reporter Reid Wilson concludes “Dem Turnout Falls Off a Cliff.”

Democratic vote totals in yesterday’s competitive primaries fell far short of the totals in previous non-competitive primaries. Only 663,000 Ohio Democrats voted in the primary between Lee Fisher, Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor, and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. That’s more than 200,000 votes short of the 2006 Democratic primary totals in Ohio when neither Gov. Ted Strickland nor Sen. Sherrod Brown faced opposition.

In Indiana, Democratic votes in House primaries yesterday were 100,000 votes shy of their 2006 numbers and 153,000 votes short of 2002 numbers. Republican numbers, however, were up 14.6% from 2006.

This trend holds true in the Tar Heel state, as well. Quoting from the story:

"Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters -- or 18% of all registered Dem voters -- who turned out in '04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.…"

"By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr's uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in '04."

Being from North Carolina (full disclosure: I worked for Senator Burr from 2004-2006), I take a keen interest in my home state’s voting patterns and turnout models. What is stunning is the anecdotal evidence of a disenchanted Democratic base.  At one point last week, Pasquotank County, a county of approximately 42,000 residents in the northeast corner of the state, represented 4% of statewide early voters.

Last week in Davidson County – the barbeque capital of the world and Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham’s home county – only 53 Unaffiliated voters had selected a Democratic ballot while more than 700 selected a Republican ballot. That is a strong sign that Senator Burr – whose 2004 opponent, Erskine Bowles has said “Nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does… His focus on this state is truly unbelievable” – has an appealing message for Unaffiliated voters, many of whom voted for President Obama in 2008.

Democratic primary voters in North Carolina appeared to be more motivated by local primaries – signaling that whomever emerges from the June 22 runoff, Cunningham or North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, their campaigns’ have little organization and no voter enthusiasm. A runoff that will cost the winning campaign precious time and resources will not help the situation.

We often hear financial ads on television that warn “Past performance does not indicate future earnings.” That’s certainly true for financial markets. But in politics, yesterday’s results in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio – telling a tale of an excited Republican base and a Democratic base that wants to stay at home – indeed do indicate earnings in the House and Senate this November.