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Democrat Leaders Insist ObamaCare Isn’t A Liability; Battleground Polling Says Otherwise

- November 25, 2013

Democratic Strategists Say Party Leaders Are In Denial For Insisting ObamaCare Won't Be A Liability In 2014. "Democratic leaders claim the bungled launch of Obamacare is just the latest news sensation - a media-stirred tempest that looks in the heat of the moment like it could upend the midterm election, but ends up fizzling well before voters head to the polls. Some party strategists say they're in denial." (Alex Isenstadt, "Dems Worry Leaders In Denial On Obamacare," Politico, 11/25/13)

  • "'We're Trying To Deny What Everyone Knows Is Happening,' Said One Democratic Pollster Who Is A Veteran Of Competitive Congressional Races. 'Anybody Who Is Halfway Intelligent Knows This Is A Big … Problem For Us. It's Impossible Not To See. We Can Try To Hide Our Heads In The Sand And Pretend It's Not A Problem, But It Is.'" (Alex Isenstadt, "Dems Worry Leaders In Denial On Obamacare," Politico, 11/25/13)

Meanwhile, Democratic Lawmakers Who Face Reelection Are Preparing To Attempt To Distance Themselves From Obama. "But in the meantime, Democratic lawmakers - particularly those on the House side - are preparing to try to put distance between themselves and the president because they're not confident that the White House has a Plan B for getting the policy right or protecting them in the mid-term elections. (Jonathan Allen, "As Deadline Nears, Ticking Clock On Democratic Patience," Politico, 11/25/13)

  • "'We Thought We Had Republicans On The Mat. We Thought We Were Going To Win Back The House And Then This Rollout Fails,' Said One House Democrat From A Traditionally Safe Seat Based In A Major City. 'Now, We Need To Be Concerned, All Of Us, Me Included, That We Aren't Viewed As Ineffective And Kicked Out Of Our Seats.'" (Jonathan Allen, "As Deadline Nears, Ticking Clock On Democratic Patience,"Politico, 11/25/13)

MULTIPLE POLLS SHOW SEN. KAY HAGAN'S (D-NC) APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE IMPLODED DUE TO OBAMACARE

Democratic Polling Firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) Finds That In The Last Two Months, Kay Hagan's Lead Over Republican Rivals Has Collapsed, With Hagan's Lead Over Republicans Standing At Between +3 To -1 Points. (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

  • When Polled By PPP In September, Hagan Led All Republican Rivals By Between 12 To 17 Points. (Public Policy Polling, 600 RV, MoE 4.0%, 9/6-9/13)

Hagan's Personal Approval Rating Stands At -5, With 44 Percent Approving Of Hagan's Job Performance And 49 Percent Disapproving. (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

  • When Polled By PPP In September, North Carolinians Gave Hagan A +4 Approval Rating, With 43 Percent Approving And 39 Percent Disapproving. (Public Policy Polling, 600 RV, MoE 4.0%, 9/6-9/13)

A Poll Conducted By Elon University Found That Hagan's Approval Rating Is Underwater By 6.4 Points, With 37.1 Percent Of Respondents Approving And 43.5 Percent Disapproving. (Elon University Poll, 681 RV, 3.76% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

  • In A September Poll Conducted By Elon University, Hagan's Approval Rating Was +3, With 38 Percent Approving, 35 Percent Disapproving And 26 Percent Unsure. (Elon University Poll, 681 RV, 3.76% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

Hostility To President Obama And ObamaCare Seems To Be Driving Hagan's Declining Fortunes

In Its Polling Memo, PPP Writes "It Seems Likely That The Difficulties With The Rollout Of ObamaCare Are Helping To Make Life More Difficult For Hagan." "It seems likely that the difficulties with the rollout of Obamacare are helping to make life more difficult for Hagan. It's always been unpopular in North Carolina and currently 38% of voters say they approve of it to 48% who disapprove, numbers pretty consistent with what we've found over the years. But what's really hurting Democrats is its being back in the news - 69% of voters say its rollout has been unsuccessful so far to only 25% who deem it a success." (Press Release, "North Carolina Senate Race Tightens Considerably," Public Policy Polling, 11/12/13)

  • "It's No Coincidence That The Decline In Hagan's Approval Numbers Tracks Pretty Closely With A Big Decline In President Obama's Popularity Over That Same Period Of Time." (Press Release, "North Carolina Senate Race Tightens Considerably," Public Policy Polling, 11/12/13)

North Carolinians Disapprove Of ObamaCare By A 10 Point Margin, With 38 Percent Approving And 48 Percent Disapproving. (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

69 Percent Of North Carolinians Say The Implementation Of ObamaCare Has Been "Somewhat Unsuccessful" Or "Very Unsuccessful" Versus Just 25% Who Say It Has Been "Somewhat Successful" Or "Very Successful." (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

  • 49 Percent Say The Rollout Of ObamaCare Has Been "Very Unsuccessful." (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

53.6 Percent Of North Carolinians Expect ObamaCare To Negatively Impact Health Care In The State. (Elon University Poll, 681 RV, 3.76% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

According To PPP, North Carolinians Disapprove Of President Obama's Job Performance By A 10 Point Margin, With 43 Percent Approving And 53 Percent Disapproving. (Public Policy Polling, 701 RV, MoE 3.7%, 11/8-11/13)

  • The Elon University Poll Finds Obama Under Water By 14 Points, 37 Percent Of North Carolinians Approving Of His Job Performance And 54 Percent Disapproving. (Elon University Poll, 681 RV, 3.76% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU'S (D-LA) APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE TANKED AS JUST ONE THIRD OF LOUISIANANS SUPPORT OBAMACARE

A New Independent Poll From Southern Media & Opinion Research Finds That Mary Landrieu's Approval Rating Is Now Underwater By 4 Points, With 46.3 Percent Approving Of Her Job Performance And 50.5 Percent Disapproving. (Southern Media & Opinion Research Poll, 600 LV, 4.0% MoE, 11/6-12/13)

Landrieu's Approval Ratings Have Plummeted From Where They Stood In Spring Of 2013, When Her Approval Rating Stood At +15, With 56 Percent Approving Of Her Job Performance To 41 Percent Disapproving. (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

Landrieu's Seniority Will Not Save Her: Just 37 Percent Of Respondents Thought It was Important To Keep Her In Office Due To Her Seniority While 56 Percent Wanted To Elect "Someone New." "When voters were asked which was more important, keeping her in office due to her seniority or electing someone new, 56% wanted someone new and 37% wanted to keep her in office." (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

  • "Her Accumulated Seniority Is Unimportant To Most Voters And Reminding Voters She Is A Three-Term Incumbent Senator Will Not Improve Her Outlook For Reelection." (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

"If Senator Landrieu Faced Reelection In The Next Few Months, Her Outlook For Reelection Would Be Highly Unlikely." (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

Landrieu's Plummeting Approval Ratings Are Tied To Obama And ObamaCare

ObamaCare Is Deeply Unpopular In Louisiana, With Only 33.6 Percent Favoring The Law To 59 Percent Who Oppose It. (Southern Media & Opinion Research Poll, 600 LV, 4.0% MoE, 11/6-12/13)

54 Percent Of Respondents Said They Would Be Less Likely To Vote For Landrieu Due To Her Support Of ObamaCare. "Fifty-four percent of those polled said they'd be less likely to vote for the Democratic senator's re-election next year because of her vote for President Barack Obama's health law." (Melinda Deslatte, "Landrieu Takes Hit At Home With Health Law Problem," The Associated Press, 11/21/13)

  • 70 Percent Of Undecided Voters Said They Would Be Less Likely To Vote For Landrieu Due To Her Support Of ObamaCare. (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

"Although We Can't Be Certain Of What Caused The Shift, The Controversial Federal Government's Health Care Website Fiasco Which Further Drew Attention To The Affordable Care Act Likely Contributed To Landrieu's Lower Positive Job Performance Ratings." (Press Release, November 2013 Louisiana Poll, Southern Media & Opinion Research, 11/21/13)

SEN. MARK UDALL (D-CO) IS NOW VULNERABLE AS COLORADO TURNS AGAINST OBAMACARE

Sen. Mark Udall's (D-CO) Approval Rating Has Eroded Significantly In Recent Months, And Now Coloradans Are Equally Split On His Job Performance, With 44 Percent Approving And 44 Percent Disapproving. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1206 RV, 2.8% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

  • In August, Udall Boasted A +13 Approval Rating, With 47 Percent Of Coloradans Approving Of His Job Performance And 34 Percent Disapproving. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,184 RV, 2.9% MoE, 8/15-21/13)

Voters Now Oppose Reelecting Udall By A Six Point Margin, With 41 Percent Saying He Deserves To Be Elected And 47 Percent Saying He Does Not. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1206 RV, 2.8% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

  • In August, Coloradans Supported Returning Udall To Office By An 8 Point Margin, With 44 Percent Saying He Should Be Reelected And 36 Percent Saying He Should Not. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,184 RV, 2.9% MoE, 8/15-21/13)

"Though Running Even Or Ahead Of Six Possible Republican Challengers, Sen. Mark Udall Must Be Pulling For A Quick Fix Of The Obamacare Website And A Change Of Heart By Coloradans Who Dislike The Affordable Care Act By A Wide Margin." (Press Release, "Christie Leads Clinton In Colorado In 2016 Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Hits The Rocks In The Rockies," Quinnipiac University, 11/20/13)

Udall's Ratings Have Plummeted In Tandem With Obama And ObamaCare

Coloradans Oppose ObamaCare By A 16 Point Margin, With 40 Percent Supporting The Law And 56 Percent Opposing It. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1206 RV, 2.8% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

  • 45 Percent Of Poll Respondents Said They Expected The Quality Of Their Healthcare To Be Worse One Year From Now Due To ObamaCare. Just 18 Percent Expect Their Healthcare To Be Better. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1206 RV, 2.8% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

Coloradans Disapprove Of Obama's Job Performance By A 23 Point Margin, With 36 Percent Approving And 59 Percent Disapproving. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1206 RV, 2.8% MoE, 11/15-18/13)

  • In August, Obama's Approval Rating Stood At -15, With 41 Percent Approving And 56 Percent Disapproving. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1,184 RV, 2.9% MoE, 8/15-21/13)
  • In 2012, Obama Carried Colorado By 5 Points, Receiving 51.5 Percent Of The Vote To Mitt Romney's 46.1 Percent. (2012 General Election Results, Colorado Secretary Of State, Accessed 11/24/13)

"'President Barack Obama Hits The Rocks In The Rockies,' Malloy Said. "Republicans Are Singing, ''Rocky Mountain Low, Obama's In The Snow.''" (Press Release, "Christie Leads Clinton In Colorado In 2016 Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Hits The Rocks In The Rockies," Quinnipiac University, 11/20/13)

EVEN THE RACE FOR MICHIGAN'S OPEN SENATE SEAT IS A STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT

New Polling Shows That Republican Terry Lynn Land And Democrat Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI) Are In A Statistical Dead Heat In The Race For Michigan's Open Senate Seat, With 37 Percent Of Voters Supporting Peters And 36 Percent Supporting Land. "Peters, a third-term U.S. representative, garnered 37 percent support of likely Michigan voters, compared with 36 percent for Land, the former two-term Michigan secretary of state, according to the survey by Lansing consulting firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates and Denno Research. The poll has a plus-minus margin of error of 4 percentage points, making it a statistical tie." (Marisa Schultz, "Poll: Michigan's Senate Race Tight Between Peters, Land," Detroit News , 11/20/13)

"'The Senate Race Looks Like It's Going To Remain Tight And A Focus Nationally As The Stakes Rise For Control Of The Senate,' Said Jeff Lambert, President And Managing Partner At Lambert, Edwards & Associates, In Statement. 'This Contest Could Be A Barn-Burner Right Up Until The 2014 Election.'" (Marisa Schultz, "Poll: Michigan's Senate Race Tight Between Peters, Land," Detroit News , 11/20/13)

The Michigan Senate Race Was Recently Moved Out Of The Safe Column By The Rothenberg Political Report

Last Week, The Rothenberg Political Report Moved Michigan's Open Senate Seat Out Of The Safe Democrat Column. "Make no mistake, Peters has shown remarkable political agility and starts this race with the edge, but this open seat should no longer be considered safe. You can read a full analysis of the race in the recent November 7 edition ($) of The Rothenberg Political Report. (Nathan L. Gonzales, "Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe For Democrats," Roll Call, 11/14/13)

"This Open Seat Should No Longer Be Considered Safe."(Nathan L. Gonzales, "Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe For Democrats," Roll Call, 11/14/13)


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