There’s been a lot of chatter about the make-up of those going to vote early as the numbers have rolled in the past few days. Yesterday the Obama campaign issued a memo claiming without much evidence that they are reaching out to “sporadic” voters, but the actual data doesn’t back that up. (neither do the charts!)
In states where Democrats have more early votes (IA, OH, NV) they are investing significant resources in turning out “high propensity voters” – those who have voted in either 3 or 4 of the past 4 general elections. In Ohio this is particularly stark. There are 1,005,601 registered Democrats who fit this description. 42.96% of them have already voted or requested a ballot (Blue Bar below)! There are 1,311,198 registered Republicans who have voted in at least 3 of the last 4 general elections. Only 27.27% have voted or requested a ballot (Red Bar below)
This means there are 380,022 more Republican high propensity voters who haven’t voted early in the electorate. In contrast, Democrats are diluting their ability to perform on Election Day.
Republicans have been focused on increasing turnout among those Romney supporters who are less likely to vote and banking those votes during the early vote period. This effort has been successful as we wrote last week. The Democratic early vote advantage in the state has dwindled every day and is far behind its pace in 2008.
Elections Election 2012