FROM: RNC Political Director Rick Wiley
TO: Interested Parties
RE: For Democrats, It’s (Ground) Game Over
The Obama camp has been firing off a number of memos in desperate attempt to convince the media (and themselves) that they’re not losing. What they aren’t telling you is this isn’t 2008; the numbers show we’re doing much better in early voting, and they are doing much worse.
But more importantly we are poised to blow the Obama campaign out on Election Day thanks to a superior GOTV program and a historical GOP Election Day advantage
In the four party-registration states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), we are poised to win the Election Day vote by even greater margins than we did in 2008. That’s right, Jeremy Bird, we beat you on Election Day even in 2008.
This time around we have over 150,000 volunteers across the battleground who have already contacted over 53 million voters and expect to contact millions more from now until the polls close tomorrow night.
The Democrats have expended much energy to make the point that more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in some states. It makes sense that the same desperate campaign that made “revenge” their closing argument would make this ridiculous stat the central defense of their ground game. Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.
Democrats’ problems are compounded because, as they fail to tell you, they are cannibalizing their Election Day voters. The great turnout operation they claim to have isn’t turning out enough new or sporadic voters; they’re largely getting their reliable voters to vote early instead of on Election Day.
The Republican strategy has been the reverse of the Democrats’. We have turned out our voters who aren’t as likely to come to the polls on Election Day, securing their votes during early voting. Now, all that remains to do is give our reliable voters the final reminder needed to get them to the polls Tuesday. And we have many more reliable voters left than the Democrats.
In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.
And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats--72 percent more, in fact--and enough to off-set the Obama campaign's most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.
So, when you add it all up, the Democrats’ early vote advantage just isn’t big enough. Republicans will come out ahead, and Mitt Romney will claim victory. And our superior ground game will ensure that the margin of victory is even greater than these numbers would suggest.
The Obama campaign’s superior ground game is a myth. They claim they have double and triple the people and offices across the country, yet poll after poll has shown voters have been contacted equally if not more by the Romney campaign and the Republicans. It goes to show you what big government bureaucracy gets you.
I’m glad Democrats are so eager to talk about their ground game. The more they talk, the more they prove the numbers don’t add up.
It’s (ground) game over.
Elections Election 2012