How the tables have turned

RNC Communications - October 28, 2012

Based on Messina’s April 2012 map, Chicago can’t be happy with all the talk about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Minnesota with 9 days out.  While both Obama and Biden spend time in Wisconsin and Biden in Pennsylvania this week, North Carolina’s early vote math doesn’t work for Obama as the GOP gains triple Obama’s 2008 vote margin. The GOP is making gains in early vote in Florida, Obama has a Virginia problem with young voters and Cutter spent her Sunday morning attacking the Des Moines Register for endorsing Romney.

 FLASHBACK: April 2012 Messina Map – PA, WI, NH And MN Look Pretty Blue…

@Samsteinhp: not a great sign for O camp RT @CarrieNBCNews: An aide confirms that @JoeBiden will campaign in PA on Nov. 1. #NBCpolitics

@Rickklein: Biden headed to PA. MN tightening. So are OH & VA. Des Moines Register endorses Romney. Map tipping late in Mitt's direction...

The Hill: Gallup daily: Romney leads Obama 50-46 among likely voters

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 4 points, according to the latest Gallup daily tracking poll released Sunday. The survey finds Romney at 50 percent support among likely voters to Obama’s 46. The numbers show a 1-point drop over Saturday’s 51 to 46 lead for the GOP nominee. The poll finds Obama up among registered voters, though, with a 48-47 advantage.  That figure reflects a 1-point loss for Romney from Saturday, where the two presidential contenders were tied at 48 percent. Gallup’s poll is a rolling seven-day average through Saturday Oct. 27 and includes 5 days of survey data after the third and final presidential debate held last Monday in Boca Raton, Fla.

In The Battlegrounds:

  • FLORIDA: GOP making gains on first day of Early Vote, I-4 voters for Romney, Check out Miami Dade…
  • VIRGINIA: Once a game changer, Virginia slipping away from Obama, VA college students not excited for Obama
  • MINNESOTA: New poll shows Romney within the margin of error in state Obama won by 10 points in 2008
  • OHIO: Tie race in Ohio as Kasich predicts a Romney win based on internal polling
  • WISCONSIN: Playing defense, Team Obama sends Obama send Biden to another state Messina didn’t have on his map
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama’s lead just 2 points
  • NORTH CAROLINA: GOP has 42k net vote advantage – tripling the 14k vote margin Obama won by in 2008
  • IOWA: You know you’re losing when you attack the Des Moines Register after they don’t endorse your candidate…

FLORIDA: GOP Making Gains On First Day Of Early Vote, I-4 Voters For Romney, Miami Dade Closer For Romney

Early Vote Day 1 in Florida: Sunshine for Romney

Miami Herald: Miami Herald poll: Obama, who defeated McCain by 16 points in Miami-Dade, ahead of Romney by 9

Miami-Dade voters appear ready to impose term limits on county commissioners, finance improvements to public school facilities and pay extra taxes to protect stray pets — but they don’t want to pay for a new roof on the Miami Dolphins’ stadium, according to a Miami Herald poll. President Barack Obama, while besting Republican challenger Mitt Romney, also seems to have significantly less support among county voters today than he had in 2008, when a double-digit win in Miami-Dade helped him carry Florida.

Tampa Bay Times: Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll: I-4 voters back Romney 51-45

It has been a fundamental rule of Florida politics for decades: Statewide campaigns are won and lost on the I-4 corridor. Today that celebrated swing-voter swath stretching from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach is poised to deliver Florida's 29 electoral votes to Mitt Romney. An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

ABC News: State of the Race in Florida, According to Marco Rubio

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is optimistic about Mitt Romney’s chances against President Obama in the state, telling reporters today: “I’d rather be us than them.” “You look at — you compare what is going on on the ground today to 2008 — it’s not even comparable in terms of the work that we’re doing on the ground here in Florida,” said Rubio, venturing back to the press cabin on Romney’s campaign plane flying from the Pensacola to Orlando for the last three stops on Romney’s Florida campaign swing. “And of course, you’ve seen the public polling — and everything I’ve seen confirms — I think we have enthusiasm on our side, and the best way to put it is, in Florida, I’d rather be us than them.” Recent polls show a tight race between Romney and Obama in the Sunshine State, which Obama won by a narrow margin in the 2008 election.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Insider Poll bets heavily on Romney winning state

Our latest exclusive Florida Insider Poll of more than 100 of the most experienced and savviest political hands in the state found that 73 percent expect Romney will win the Sunshine State, while 27 percent predict Obama. Sixty percent of Democrats expect Romney will win Florida's 29 electoral votes and 95 percent of Republicans expect Romney to carry Florida.

IOWA: You Know You’re Losing When You Attack The Des Moines Register After They Don’t Endorse Your Candidate…

The Hill: Cutter: Des Moines Register endorsement not ‘based at all in reality’

Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter on Sunday dismissed the Des Moines Register endorsement of GOP candidate Mitt Romney, saying it was not “based at all in reality.” “They endorsed Mitt Romney in the primary, so this was not much of a surprise,” said Cutter on ABC’s “This Week” of the influential swing-state paper’s backing for President Obama’s challenger. “It was a little surprising to read that editorial, because it didn't seem to be based at all in reality, not just in the president's record, but in Mitt Romney's record,” Cutter added. “It says that he'd reach across the aisle, which he'd do the exact opposite. It's the exact opposite of what he did in Massachusetts.” Romney on late Saturday received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s largest newspaper.

VIRGINIA: Once A Game Changer, Virginia Slipping Away From Obama, VA College Students Not Excited For Obama

McClatchy News: Once a sign of his game-changing appeal, Virginia now could slip away from Obama

As he stood waiting for President Obama to arrive for a campaign rally at a minor league baseball field, longtime Virginia resident Rick Flaherty marveled that his state could help keep the Democrat would remain in the White House.  “It’s a sign of progress that we think we can pick up the state of Virginia,” said Flaherty, a retired scientist who along with his equally enthusiastic wife, Diane, joined a diverse crowd of 12,000 in Prince William County outside Washington to cheer the incumbent. “We love Obama. He’s a person you want to have a beer with.” Virginia broke with tradition four years ago when it chose a Democrat for president for the first time since 1964. Paired with an Obama win in North Carolina, the 2008 victory suggested the Democrats might be able to make a sustained push into the border South for the first time since it turned solidly Republican in the 1960s. … Now, the economy in Virginia continues to lag, even in a state where a close proximity to the nation’s capital has helped keep the unemployment rate below the national average. Despite changing demographics that should give the Democrats an even better shot in Virginia than they had in 2008, many Virginians don’t want to give Obama a second chance. And the Republicans could retake the state, along with neighbor North Carolina, and stop the Democratic march into the South.

CNN: Battleground Blog: Virginia students engaged and informed

The Battleground State Bus Tour rolled into Lexington, Virginia, and sat down with twenty college students at Washington & Lee University to talk about the election. The economy is still the number one issue for these students, but surprisingly it isn't just about finding a job after graduation. The vast majority of students in this center-right group cared most about the generational theft of the deficit and the debt. "My opinion is the older folks didn't do their job. They didn't manage the economy," said Josh Laguerre. "They just spent, spent, spent. They didn't plan for us and now we have to clean up the mess that they've made." Obama has lost ground with these students, including former supporters who are now undecided or leaning towards Romney. "I agree with the president on social issues. I really do, and I think a lot of us are free-thinking in that way. But it's kind of gotten to the point where it's like triage. It's, like, okay, the economy's most important to me," said Caitlin Tyree. "In 2008 I supported the president. I even worked for grassroots organizations and I was all about him. In this election it's kind of just been like a bad break up between me and the president."  Ouch.

MINNESOTA: New Poll Shows Romney Within The Margin Of Error In State Obama Won By 10 Points In 2008

Washington Post: Minnesota poll shows Romney within margin of error

Mitt Romney is knocking on the door of adding another state to the mix in the 2012 election, with a new poll in Minnesota showing him within the margin of error. The new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll, conducted by pollster Mason-Dixon, shows Obama at 47 percent and Romney at 44 percent. The same pollster showed Obama leading in the Land of 10,000 Lakes by eight points last month. This is the first nonpartisan poll to show Romney within the margin of error in Minnesota.

CNN: Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats. The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

The Hill: Obama lead narrows in new Minnesota poll

Mitt Romney is closing in on President Obama in Minnesota, according to a new poll from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.  Obama now leads Romney 47 percent to 44 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. The president had led by eight points in the Tribune’s poll last month. The results come as Minnesota, which last voted for a GOP presidential nominee four decades ago, has gotten increased attention from both campaigns. Both Romney and Obama are airing advertisements in the state – though, as some analysts have noted, some Minnesota ad buys can also reach voters in Wisconsin, which both sides view as a swing state.

Minneapolis Star Tribune: Minnesota Poll: Obama leading, but Romney sees gains

The president's 3-point lead in state is within poll's margin of error. As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state. The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

OHIO: Tie Race In Ohio As Kasich Predicts A Romney Win Based On Internal Polling

BuzzFeed: Ohio Newspapers: It's Tied

How the major Ohio newspapers published their poll showing a 49-49 tie

Kasich on MTP: Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) predicted outright that Romney would win Ohio on "Meet the Press" and, with it, the presidential election — a overall contest which Kasich said wouldn't be that close. "Right now, I believe we're currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead," he said, referring to the private polling candidates routinely conduct. "Honestly, I believe that Romney is going to carry Ohio."

 Columbus Dispatch: Romney closes Obama’s lead to split Ohio

Boosted by a surge among male voters who think he’s the best candidate to fix the economy, Republican Mitt Romney has come back to tie President Barack Obama in battleground Ohio. They are deadlocked at 49 percent in a new Dispatch/Ohio News Organization poll. Obama was ahead by 5 points in the same poll published on Sept. 16. How does that tie get broken in the next nine days?

 WISCONSIN: Playing Defense, Team Obama Sends Obama And Biden To Another State Messina Didn’t Have On His Map

 Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: All hands on deck: Biden, Romney, Obama, Ryan work Wisconsin

The battle for Wisconsin is on. Vice President Joe Biden kicked off the most intensive period of the campaign season Friday when he appeared on University of Wisconsin campuses in Oshkosh and Kenosha and laid into the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan for being negative about the state of the nation. "Romney and Ryan, America's not in decline. You're in denial. Folks in Oshkosh know, there is no quit in the American people," Biden said as he raised his voice above cheers. " . . . Folks, we need you. When we win Wisconsin, we win this election!" Biden was the first of the big four candidates to hit the state over six days, underscoring Wisconsin's looming role in a nerve-racking electoral endgame for each side. Romney will be in West Allis on Monday evening at the Wisconsin Products Pavilion at State Fair Park. President Barack Obama will be in Green Bay on Tuesday. And Ryan, the congressman from Janesville, will campaign in the state Wednesday.

 NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama’s Lead Just 2 Points

Public Policy Polling: Obama leads narrowly in New Hampshire

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48. Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing, 49/48. They're not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47 margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama's victories in the last two debates equaled out Romney's big win the first debate- asked to say who was the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43. Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39 advantage with them that's just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39 margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama's overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than Romney is Democrats (6%).

NORTH CAROLINA: GOP Has 42k Net Vote Advantage – Tripling The 14k Vote Margin Obama Won By In 2008

 News Observer: The GOP Has A Net Advantage Of More Than 42,000 Votes Over Democrats Compared To Last

The GOP has a net advantage of more than 42,000 votes over Democrats compared to last time around, and Mitt Romney spokeswoman Rachel Adams points out that would more than erase the 14,177-vote victory by Obama last time around. Adams said the ground they’ve already gained and a trend from the last presidential election gives reason to believe North Carolina will turn red. Last time, Democratic turnout steadily dropped off as the early voting period wore on, while Republicans gained steam. That has happened again at a relatively similar rate. “The math just isn’t adding up for Democrats,” Adams said. “Momentum is clearly on the Republican side.”


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