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Obama Continues Shrinking At The Polls

- July 27, 2012

AMERICANS TRUST ROMNEY TO FIX THE ECONOMY

Gallup: 63 Percent Of Americans Say Romney’s Business Background “Would Cause Him To Make Good Decisions” On How To Run The Economy.  “And while the Obama campaign has tried to criticize Romney's business record, particularly his time as head of Bain Capital, the public by a wide margin sees his background as a plus. Specifically, the July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll finds 63% of Americans saying Romney's business background would cause him to make good decisions about how to deal with economic problems the U.S. would face, while 29% say it would cause him to make bad decisions. A majority of independents say Romney would make good decisions.” (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)

  • 56 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Federal Budget Deficit, While Just 36 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
     
  • 51 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Economy, While Just 41 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
     
  • 50 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Creating Jobs, While Just 44 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
     
  • 49 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling Taxes, While Just 45 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)

NBC/ The Wall Street Journal Poll: 43 Percent Of Voters Say Mitt Romney Would Be Better At Dealing With The Economy Compared To 37 Percent Who Support Obama. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

NBC/ The Wall Street Journal Poll: 43 Percent Of Voters Say Mitt Romney Would Be Better At Having “Good Ideas For How To Improve The Economy” Compared To 36 Percent Who Support Obama. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

OBAMAECONOMICS ISN’T WORKING FOR VOTERS

53 Percent Of Voters Disapprove Of The Way Obama Is Handling The Economy, While 44 Percent Approve. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

Two Thirds Of Americans Think The Slow Recovery Is Due To Bad Policy. “It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy.” (Sheldon Alberts, “The Hill Poll: Voters Blame President Most For Slow Economic Recovery,” The Hill7/23/12)

  • And A Plurality Say Obama Is To Blame. “Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. “(Sheldon Alberts, “The Hill Poll: Voters Blame President Most For Slow Economic Recovery,” The Hill7/23/12)
     
  • “A Record 61 Percent Said The Government Is Trying To Do Things That Should Be Left To Individuals And Free Markets, The Highest Number Since Gallup Began Asking The Question Two Decades Ago In 1992.” (Jonathan Easley, “Poll Gives Romney Lead On Economy Despite Obama’s Bain Attacks,” The Hill’s Ballot Box,” 7/24/12)

In The Next Year, 70 Percent Of Voters Say They Expect The Economy To Either Get Worse Or Stay The Same, Compared To Just 27 Percent Who Say It Will Get Better. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

  • 55 Percent Of Voters Say Recent News About Our Country’s  Economy Has Made Them Less Optimistic, Compared To 37 Percent Who Say The News Has Made Them More Optimistic. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

VOTERS CONTINUE TO DISAPPROVE OF OBAMACARE

44 Percent Of Americans Say That ObamaCare Is A “Total Bad Idea.” (NBC News/The Wall Street Journal Poll, 1,000 RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18-22/12)

A Plurality Of Americans (32 Percent) Are “Very Disappointed” That The Supreme Court Upheld ObamaCare. (NBC News/The Wall Street Journal Poll, 1,000 RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18-22/12)

VOTERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK

60 Percent Of Voters Say The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While Just 32 Percent Say It’s Headed In The Right Direction. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal, 1,000RV, MoE 3.1%, 7/18 – 22/12)

REPUBLICANS ARE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VOTING IN NOVEMBER

“Republicans' Greater Enthusiasm About Voting Is A Troubling Sign For The Obama Campaign.” “Republicans' greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.” (Jeffrey M Jones, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” Gallup, 7/25/12)

Democrats Are “Significantly” Less Enthusiastic About The 2012 Election Than They Were About The 2008 Or 2004 Elections. “Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.” (Jeffrey M Jones, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” Gallup, 7/25/12)

  • The Enthusiasm Question Measures Motivation And Also “Their Expectations Of Their Preferred Party’s Chance Of Winning.” “The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans' motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party's chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.” (Jeffrey M Jones, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” Gallup, 7/25/12)
     
  • Gallup’s Measure Of Enthusiasm Correlated With The Outcome Of The 2008 Election And The Midterm Congressional Elections. “Gallup has found a relationship between voting enthusiasm and the outcome of midterm congressional elections, with the party that has the advantage generally faring better in the elections. That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election.” (Jeffrey M Jones, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” Gallup, 7/25/12)
     
  • “But If Democrats Do Not Close The Enthusiasm Gap Between Now And Election Day, It Would Put Obama's Re-Election Chances In Serious Jeopardy.” (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” Gallup, 7/25/12)

OBAMA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN KEY SWING STATES

Pennsylvania

Public Policy Polling: 50 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 46 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 758 V, MoE 3.6%, 7/21-7/23/12)

  • 53 Percent Of Pennsylvania Independent Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 42 Percent Approve.  (Public Policy Polling, 758 V, MoE 3.6%, 7/21-7/23/12)

North Carolina

Civitas Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49-48 Percent In North Carolina. (Civitas Poll, 600 RV, MoE 4%, 7/16-7/18/12)

Civitas Poll: 50 Percent Of North Carolina Voters Have An Unfavorable Opinion Of President Obama, While 47 Percent Have A Favorable View. (Civitas Poll, 600 RV, MoE 4%, 7/16-7/18/12)

Michigan

Mitchell Research: Romney Leads Obama 45-44 Percent In Michigan. (Mitchell Research, 825 LV, MoE 3.4%, 7/23/12)

  • Romney Leads Obama 44-34 Percent Among Michigan Independent Voters. (Mitchell Research, 825 LV, MoE 3.4%, 7/23/12)

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