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Obama's Baseline Erodes

- August 28, 2012

Heading Into The DNC Convention, Obama Is Losing Ground In His Baseline States

OBAMA IS IN TROUBLE IN WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Obama's Path To Victory Does Not Allow Him To Lose Any States He And Kerry Carried In 2004 And 2008, Including Wisconsin, Michigan, And New Hampshire. "We do that below. One important point before we start: The Obama team used as its baseline for each of these five scenarios the 246 electoral votes that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) won in his 2004 loss to President George W. Bush. That means that Obama could lose none of the states he and Kerry carried in 2004 and 2008 - including swing states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin - and have the numbers add up. The paths are ranked from most likely to least likely for Obama." (Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, "How President Obama Gets To 270," The Washington Post , 12/14/11)

OBAMA'S BASELINE STRATEGY IS FALLING APART IN WISCONSIN

"Red Flags" All Over Wisconsin For Obama

Los Angeles Times: "Battleground Map: Wisconsin Moves To Tossup." (David Lauter, "Battleground Map: Wisconsin Moves To Tossup," Los Angeles Times, 8/24/12)

  • Since Selecting Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI) As His Running Mate, Romney Has Improved His Standing In Wisconsin. "Romney has improved his standing in six crucial swing-state polls since the Ryan announcement: Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania." (Brett LoGiurato, "The Paul Ryan Bump Is Boosting Romney In These Crucial Swing States," Business Insider, 8/22/12)

Obama's Lead Over Romney In Wisconsin Has "Evaporated." "In the wake of Mitt Romney's decision to tap Janesville, Wis., native Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, President Obama's longtime lead over Mitt Romney in the Badger State has evaporated: The president's six-point advantage has shrunk to just two points - within the margin of error - according to the latest Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll. Another survey from Marquette Law School released Wednesday showed the president with a three point lead, also within the margin of error, and two other polls this week also showed a tight race. The Marquette poll had Mr. Obama leading by 12 points in May." (Brian Montopoli, "It's Official Wisconsin: You're A Swing State," CBS News, 8/23/12)

The Enthusiasm Gap That Has Plagued Democrats Nationally "Appears To Still Be A Real Issue For Them In Wisconsin." "A big reason Wisconsin remains so competitive for the GOP is that the electorate looks like it will be considerably more Republican leaning than it was in 2008, reflecting the continued high energy level of the party's voters after its victory in June's recall election. We find an electorate that's 34% Republican and 32% Democratic. Exit polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a 6 point turnout advantage, 39% to 33%. Although the enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats nationally in 2010 has dissipated some places, it appears to still be a real issue for them in Wisconsin." (Press Release, "Romney Slighty Ahead In Wisconsin," Public Policy Polling, 8/21/12)

National Journal: "Red Flags All Over For Obama In Wisconsin." (Josh Kraushaar, "Red Flags All Over For Obama In Wisconsin," National Journal, 6/6/12)

  • Obama Has "Been A Major Drag On His Party Since Taking Office." "For all of Obama's political talent, he's been a major drag on his party since taking office. In 2009, Republicans won two hotly-contested gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, with the victors (Chris Christie/Bob McDonnell) now on Romney's vice-presidential short list. During the heat of the health care debate in 2010, Scott Brown picked up Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in deep blue Massachusetts. Later that year, Republicans regained control of the House, by winning a whopping 63 seats while picking up six Senate seats. And now, Walker wins the recall by a bigger margin than in the 2010 election, which was already a watershed year for Wisconsin Republicans. All this suggests that something has to change fast for Obama to avoid the fate of his party colleagues come November." (Josh Kraushaar, "Red Flags All Over For Obama In Wisconsin," National Journal, 6/6/12)

Romney Closes In On Obama In Wisconsin

Quinnipiac University Poll: Obama Leads Romney 49-47 Percent In Wisconsin. ( Quinnipiac University Poll , 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Public Policy Polling: Romney Leads Obama 48-47 Percent In Wisconsin. (Public Policy Polling, 1308 LV, MoE 2.7%, 8/16-8/19/12)

OBAMA IS HAVING TROUBLE IN MICHIGAN

An Obama Loss In Michigan Will "Imperil The President's Path To Victory"

"An Obama Loss In Michigan Could Imperil The President's Path To Victory." "An Obama loss in Michigan could imperil the president's path to victory in the Electoral College, potentially requiring him to win one of the two hardest-fought states, Ohio and Florida. Heading into the fall, signs of weakness in the industrial belt also would require the Obama campaign to pour far more manpower and resources than planned into other states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Democrats have held in all of the last five presidential campaigns." (Neil King Jr, Joseph B. White, "Romney Revs Up Drive In Michigan," The Wall Street Journal, 6/15/12)

"Michigan Is Going Backwards. And That's A Problem For President Obama." "Michigan is going backwards. And that's a problem for President Obama. Michigan's unemployment rate jumped to 9 percent in July - nearly a half point higher than June's 8.6 percent rate - continuing a sudden reversal in the state's recovery. It was the third straight month during which the jobless rate has risen." (Henry Payne, "Michigan Stumbles Despite Auto Bailout," National Review, 8/16/12)

  • "A Key Swing State, Michigan's Swoon Imperils Obama's Re-Election Chances." "Michigan's plight is significant given Obama's focus on its core auto industry as a cornerstone of his national economic policy. A key swing state, Michigan's swoon imperils Obama's re-election chances." (Henry Payne, "Michigan Stumbles Despite Auto Bailout," National Review, 8/16/12)

Michigan Pollster Bernie Porn: Obama Could Be Taking Michigan For Granted, And Is "Waiting Too Long" To Get Involved In The State. "Lansing pollster Bernie Porn told political newsletter MIRS earlier this week that Obama could be taking Michigan for granted by not running ads. 'I think they are of the opinion that the bailout and loans he approved for the auto industry is such a powerful message that's going to win the day for him,' Porn said. 'But I think he could be waiting too long." (David Eggert, "Barack Obama's Campaign, Allies Spend Little To Counter Negative Ads In Michigan," MLive, 8/3/12)

The Charge That Obama Is "Gutting Welfare Reform" Hits A Nerve In Michigan, A State That Is Proud Of Their Role As A Pioneer Of Welfare Reform In The 1990s. "The second issue is welfare reform. Welfare fraud is fresh on people's minds here, thanks to the news of a Detroit area woman who was recently caught continuing to collect benefits despite winning a $1 million state lottery prize. Michiganders have a strong work ethic and remain justly proud of their state's role as a pioneer of welfare reform in the 1990s. The charge that Obama is gutting welfare reform hits a nerve here." (Marc Thiessen, "Romney's Play For Michigan," The Washington Post , 8/26/12)

Rhodes Cook, A Political Analyst And Editor Of The Rhodes Cook Letter: Democrats Can't Win Without Michigan. "'The Republicans could win without Michigan. I'm not sure if the Democrats could,' said Rhodes Cook, a political analyst and editor of the Rhodes Cook letter. 'It would be a big pick off because this is one that Democrats - from (Bill) Clinton to (Al) Gore to (John ) Kerry to (Barack) Obama - have counted on and all of them have carried it. So if Obama doesn't carry it, that's a loss for the Democrats.'" (Maureen Groppe, "Is Michigan A Real Battleground State?" Lansing State Journal , 8/20/12)

Romney Is Catching Obama In Michigan

Mitchell Research: Romney And Obama Are Tied At 47 Percent In Michigan. (Mitchell Research, 1277 LV, MoE 2.74%, 8/23/12)

  • Romney Leads Obama 45.9 - 37.7 Percent Among Michigan Independent Voters. (Mitchell Research, 1277 LV, MoE 2.74%, 8/23/12)

Baydoun/Foster: Romney Leads Obama 47.68-43.88 Percent In Michigan. (Baydoun/Foster, 1733 R, MoE 2.35%, 8/16/12)

OBAMA IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

"Obama Is In Serious Trouble In New Hampshire"

"Obama Is In Serious Trouble In New Hampshire." (Brett LoGiurato, "Obama Is In Serious Trouble In New Hampshire," Business Insider, 7/18/12)

  • In New Hampshire, "Mitt Romney Is Surging." "New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in four of the past five elections, but Mitt Romney is surging in a play to turn one Northeast state red in 2012." (Brett LoGiurato, "Obama Is In Serious Trouble In New Hampshire," Business Insider, 7/18/12)

Since 2008, New Hampshire Has Lost 55,701 Democrat Voters. (Michelle Diggles, Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, "The I's Have It: Pre-Convention Voter Registration Analysis," Third Way, 8/13/12)

  • Since New Hampshire's January Primary, Democrat Registration Has Dropped By 7,915. "In New Hampshire, another key state where independents hold the balance of power, Democratic registration has dropped by 7,915, or 3.5 percent, since the presidential primary on Jan. 10, according to figures provided by the secretary of state's office. Republican registration dipped by 4,737, or 1.8 percent, while so-called undeclared, or independent, voters increased by 5,885, or 1.9 percent. Comparable figures for the same period in 2008 were not available." (Brian C. Mooney, "Obama's Costly Investment Not Yielding New Voters," The Boston Globe , 8/16/12)

WMUR Poll: Obama Leads Romney 49-46 Among Likely New Hampshire Voters. (WMUR, 555 LV, MoE 4.2%, 8/1-8/12/12)

  • WMUR Poll: Obama Leads Romney 42-39 Percent Among New Hampshire Independent Voters. (WMUR, 555 LV, MoE 4.2%, 8/1-8/12/12)

AS OBAMA'S SUPPORT ERODES, DEMOCRATS AREN'T "TERRIBLY EXCITED" ABOUT VOTING IN NOVEMBER

The Washington Post's Aaron Blake: "Obama May Have A Turnout Problem, Too." (Aaron Blake, "Obama May Have A Turnout Problem, Too," The Washington Post's The Fix, 3/13/12)

  • In States That Held Democrat Primaries, Turnout Was Down Significantly Compared To The Last Time A Democrat President Was Running Unopposed For Renomination - Bill Clinton In 1996. "A review of the states that have also held Democratic contests this year shows turnout is down sharply from the last time a Democratic president was running largely unopposed for renomination - 1996." (Aaron Blake, "Obama May Have A Turnout Problem, Too," The Washington Post's The Fix, 3/13/12)
  • "The Numbers Do Lend Credence To The Idea That Democrats Are Also Not Terribly Excited About Voting In This Year's Presidential Election." (Aaron Blake, "Obama May Have A Turnout Problem, Too," The Washington Post's The Fix, 3/13/12)

"President Obama Is Moving To Energize The Democratic Base For His Re-Election Campaign, But In The Case Of A Dozen Battleground States, He'll Have To Work Harder Than Four Years Ago To Find It." (Susan Page, "Swing States Poll: Downbeat Dems, Resurgent Republicans" USA Today, 12/13/11)

USA Today / Gallup Poll: "74 Percent Of Republicans Say They're Thinking About The Election 'Quiet A Lot' Compared To 61 Percent Of Democrats." "More Republicans than Democrats are engaged in the presidential contest and voter turnout could decrease compared with the 2008 election, according to a Gallup poll on Monday. Seventy-four percent of Republicans said they're thinking about the election 'quite a lot,' compared to 61 percent of Democrats, the USA Today/Gallup survey found."(Kevin Cirilli, "Poll: GOP More Engaged In 2012," Politico, 8/13/12)

  • "That Data Suggests That Republican Voter Turnout Could Top Democrat Turnout, According To The Poll." (Kevin Cirilli, "Poll: GOP More Engaged In 2012," Politico, 8/13/12)

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