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Obama’s Pre-Convention Polling Slump

- August 24, 2012

The Economy Remains Voters’ Most Important Issue

The Associated Press/GfK Poll: Nine In 10 Voters Say The Economy Is “Important” For Them, While Half Say It Is “Extremely Important. “The frail economy, with the unemployment rate hovering at 8.3 percent more than three years after the deep recession officially ended, remains the No. 1 issue. Nine in 10 call it important for them and half of voters say it is ‘extremely important,’ outpacing all other issues tested by at least 10 percentage points.” (Josh Lederman and Tom Raum, “AP-GfK Poll Shows White House Race Still Tight,” The Associated Press, 8/21/12)

  • “Two-Thirds In The Poll Described The Economy As Poor.” (Josh Lederman and Tom Raum, “AP-GfK Poll Shows White House Race Still Tight,” The Associated Press, 8/21/12)

Voters Continue To Have Greater Confidence In Romney’s Ability To Handle The Economy

USA Today/Gallup: 52 Percent Of Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Economy, While 43 Percent Think Obama Would. (USA Today/ Gallup, 1003 A, MoE 4%, 8/20-8/22/12)

  • 54 Percent Of Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Budget Deficit Compared To 39 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (USA Today/ Gallup, 1003 A, MoE 4%, 8/20-8/22/12)

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll:  “Not Surprisingly, Romney Holds A Six-Point Advantage Over Obama (44 Percent To 38 Percent) On Which Candidate Has Better Ideas On How To Improve The Economy.” (Mark Murray, “NBC/WSJ Poll: Heading Into Conventions, Obama Has Four-Point Lead,” NBC News, 8/21/12)

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll: 54 Percent Of Voters Disapprove Of Obama’s Handling Of The Economy, While 44 Percent Approve. (NBC/The Wall Street Journal Poll, 1000 RV, MoE 3.1%, 8/16-20/12)

  • “And Just 36 Percent Believe The Economy Will Improve In The Next 12 Months, Though That’s Up Nine Points Since July’s Poll.” (Mark Murray, “NBC/WSJ Poll: Heading Into Conventions, Obama Has Four-Point Lead,” NBC News, 8/21/12)

48 Percent Of Voters Say They Trust Romney To Handle The Economy, While 44 Percent Favor Obama. “Registered voters split about evenly between the two candidates on whom they'd trust more to handle the economy, with 48 percent favoring Romney and 44 percent Obama.” (Josh Lederman and Tom Raum, “AP-GfK Poll Shows White House Race Still Tight,” The Associated Press, 8/21/12)

  •  “Among Independent Voters, Romney Has A Big Lead Over The President On Handling The Economy — 46 Percent To 27 Percent.” (Josh Lederman and Tom Raum, “AP-GfK Poll Shows White House Race Still Tight,” The Associated Press, 8/21/12)

50 Percent Of Voters Say Romney Would Better Handle The Federal Budget Deficit. “Romney often appeals to his business background as proof that he could better manage the federal government, and the poll finds that overall, voters are more apt to trust him to handle the federal budget deficit over Obama, by a 50 percent to 40 percent margin.” (Josh Lederman and Tom Raum, “AP-GfK Poll Shows White House Race Still Tight,” The Associated Press, 8/21/12)

This Election Cycle, Voters Are Calling Obama Out For His Negative Ads

USA Today/Gallup: “Obama Gets More Blame For Negative Attacks Than He Did In 2008. Then, 30% Accused Him Of Attacking His Republican Opponent Unfairly; Now 44% Do.” (Susan Page, “Poll: As Conventions Open, A More Negative View Of Politics,” USA Today, 8/21/12)

Voters Disapprove Of Obama’s Job Performance And Aren't Confident He Deserves A Second Term

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll:  “Less Than Half Of Voters Approved Of The President's Job Performance, While Roughly Two-Thirds Said The Country Was On The Wrong Track, Numbers That Have Moved Little All Year.”  (Neil King Jr. and Danny Yadron, “In Tight Race, Romney Faces Hurdles,” The Wall Street Journal, 8/21/12)

  • “More Than Six In 10 Believe The Country Is Headed In The Wrong Direction, Which Is Essentially Unchanged From Last Month.” (Mark Murray, “NBC/WSJ Poll: Heading Into Conventions, Obama Has Four-Point Lead,” NBC News, 8/21/12)

 “Just 43% Said Mr. Obama Deserved To Be Re-Elected, While 31% Said The Country Was Better Off Since Mr. Obama Became President.”  (Neil King Jr. and Danny Yadron, “In Tight Race, Romney Faces Hurdles,” The Wall Street Journal, 8/21/12)

The National Trend Is Reflected In The Swing States

Gallup: 52 Percent Of Swing State Voters Say Obama Has Not “Done As Well As Could Be Expected In Dealing With The Economy, Given Its Condition When He Took Office” Compared To 46 Percent Who Say He Has. “And the poll finds that is the case for just under half of voters in the swing states, with 46% saying Obama has done as well as could be expected in dealing with the economy given its condition when he took office, while 52% say he has not.” (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Swing-State Voters Say They Are No Better Off Than In 2008,” Gallup, 8/20/12)

  • 56 Percent Of Swing State Voters Say They Aren’t Better Off Than They Were Four Years Ago, Compared To 40 Percent Who Say They Are Better Off. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Swing-State Voters Say They Are No Better Off Than In 2008,” Gallup, 8/20/12)

Swing State Voters Disapprove Of Obama’s Job Performance

Quinnipiac University Poll: 48 Percent Of Florida Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 47 Percent Approve. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 52 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 39 Percent Approve. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: 47 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 43 Percent Approve. (Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll, 422 LV, MoE 5%, 8/20-8/22/12)

Public Policy Polling: 50 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 46 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 1308 LV, MoE 2.7%, 8/16-8/19/12)

  • 48 Percent Of Wisconsin Independent Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 44 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 1308 LV, MoE 2.7%, 8/16-8/19/12)

Swing State Voters Trust Romney On The Economy, Spending, And Budget Deficit

Quinnipiac University Poll: 48 Percent Of Florida Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 45 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 53 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 35 Percent Of Independents Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: 53 Percent Of Florida Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Budget Deficit Than 37 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 59 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Budget Deficit Than 26 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

The Ohio Poll: 49 Percent Of Ohio Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Economy Than 42 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (The Ohio Poll, 847 LV, MoE 3.4%, 8/16-8/21/12)

  • 56 Percent Of Ohio Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Economy Than 28 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (The Ohio Poll, 847 LV, MoE 3.4%, 8/16-8/21/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: 50 Percent Of Ohio Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Deficit Than 40 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1253 LV, MoE 2,8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 61 Percent Of Ohio Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Deficit Than 28 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1253 LV, MoE 2,8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

The Ohio Poll: 51 Percent Of Ohio Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On Government Spending Than 49 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (The Ohio Poll, 847 LV, MoE 3.4%, 8/16-8/21/12)

  • 54 Percent Of Ohio Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On Government Spending Than 13 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (The Ohio Poll, 847 LV, MoE 3.4%, 8/16-8/21/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: 49 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 43 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 50 Percent Of Wisconsin Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 37 Percent Of Independents Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

54 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Deficit Than 37 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

  • 56 Percent Of Wisconsin Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Deficit Than 30 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Republicans Continue To Be More Enthusiastic About Voting In The Election

Nationally, 53 Percent Of Republicans Are More Enthusiastic About Voting In The Election Than 46 Percent Of Democrats.  “The enthusiasm gap that boosted Obama in 2008 has turned around this year. Now 53% of Republicans and those who lean Republican say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, compared with 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.” (Susan Page, “Poll: As Conventions Open, A More Negative View Of Politics,” USA Today, 8/21/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: Ohio Republicans Are 45 Percent More Enthusiastic Than 34 Percent Of Ohio Democrats To Vote In The 2012 Election. (Quinnipiac University, 1253 LV, MoE 2,8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Wisconsin Republicans Are 48 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 32 Percent Of Democrats.  (Quinnipiac University Poll, 1190 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)

Florida Republicans Are 53 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 36 Percent Of Democrats. (Quinnipiac University, 1241 LV, MoE 2.8%, 8/15-8/21/12)


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