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Obama’s Summer Slip

- August 3, 2012

ROMNEY LEADS OBAMA ON VOTERS’ TOP ISSUES

Gallup: Americans Top Issues For The Next President Include “Creating Good Jobs, Reducing Corruption In The Federal Government, And Reducing The Federal Budget Deficit.” “Creating good jobs, reducing corruption in the federal government, and reducing the federal budget deficit score highest when Americans rate 12 issues as priorities for the next president to address. Americans assign much less importance to increasing taxes on wealthy Americans and dealing with environmental concerns.”(Jeffrey M. Jones, “Americans Want Next President To Prioritize Jobs, Corruption,” Gallup, 7/30/12)

  • Gallup: “The Candidate Who Americans Think Has The Better Plans On Each Of These Issues Will Have An Advantage. As Of Now, Americans Believe Romney Is Better Able To Handle Jobs And The Deficit Than Obama Is.” (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Americans Want Next President To Prioritize Jobs, Corruption,” Gallup, 7/30/12)

63 Percent Of Americans Say Romney’s Business Background “Would Cause Him To Make Good Decisions” On How To Run The Economy.  “And while the Obama campaign has tried to criticize Romney's business record, particularly his time as head of Bain Capital, the public by a wide margin sees his background as a plus. Specifically, the July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll finds 63% of Americans saying Romney's business background would cause him to make good decisions about how to deal with economic problems the U.S. would face, while 29% say it would cause him to make bad decisions. A majority of independents say Romney would make good decisions.” (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)

  • 56 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Federal Budget Deficit, While Just 36 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
  • 51 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Economy, While Just 41 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
  • 50 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Creating Jobs, While Just 44 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)
  • 49 Percent Of Americans Say Romney Would Be Better At Handling Taxes, While Just 45 Percent Say Obama Would. (Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Character Edge Offsets Romney’s Economic Advantage,” Gallup, 7/24/12)

ROMNEY IS AHEAD OF OBAMA ON LEADERSHIP QUALITIES

The Hill Poll: “48 Percent Of Voters Consider Romney The Stronger Leader, Compared To 44 Percent Who Favored Obama.” “Mitt Romney holds thin advantages over President Obama on leadership, personal values and honesty, according to a new poll for The Hill. The poll, conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, suggests voters see little difference between the candidates on character issues that Democrats have cited as key to Obama’s appeal. It found 48 percent of voters consider Romney the stronger leader, compared to 44 percent who favored Obama.”(Sheldon Alberts, “The Hill Poll: Voters Say Romney, Obama, Equal On Issues Of Character,” The Hill, 7/30/12)

  • The Hill Poll: 47 Percent Of Likely Voters Say Romney Most Shares Their Values While 44 Percent Picked Obama. “Similarly, 47 percent of likely voters also said Romney most shares their values while 44 percent picked Obama.” (Sheldon Alberts, “The Hill Poll: Voters Say Romney, Obama, Equal On Issues Of Character,” The Hill, 7/30/12)
  • The Hill Poll: 46 Percent Of Likely Voters Say They Consider Romney “More Honest And Trustworthy” While 44 Percent Said Obama. “When asked which candidate voters considered more honest and trustworthy, 46 percent said Romney and 44 percent said Obama — a result within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error.” (Sheldon Alberts, “The Hill Poll: Voters Say Romney, Obama, Equal On Issues Of Character,” The Hill, 7/30/12)

OBAMA IS LOSING SUPPORT FROM ONE OF HIS KEY COALTIONS

First Time Voters Who Supported Obama In 2008 Are “Less Likely To Vote In The November Elections Than Other Obama Backs From Four Years Ago.” “A new poll shows that first-time voters who cast ballots for Mr. Obama in ‘08 are not as engaged in the presidential campaign to the same degree as other Obama supporters.  They are less likely to vote in the November elections than other Obama backers from four years ago, the poll shows.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)

  • “And They Are Not As Persuaded As Other Obama Voters That The President Would Do A Better Job Fixing The Economy Than Republican Challenger Mitt Romney.” “And they are not as persuaded as other Obama voters that the president would do a better job fixing the economy than Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The survey, conducted by Louisiana State University’s Public Policy Research Lab, tracks the sentiments of those who voted for the first time in 2008. Heading the survey was lab director Kirby Goidel.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal,7/31/12) 
  • “About 72% Of The New Voters Said Mr. Obama Would Do A Better Job Of Improving The Economy Than Mr. Romney, Compared To More Than 80% Of The Other Obama Voters.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12) 
  • “Should The First-Time Obama Voters From ’08 Stay Home Or Defect To The Republican Camp, Mr. Obama May Be Hard-Pressed To Win A Second Term, The Poll Suggests.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)

Pollsters Found The Lack Of Enthusiasm Among Obama’s 2008 First-Time Voter Coalition “Represents A Real Threat” To His Reelection Prospects. “Their relative disengagement represents a real threat to President Obama’s re-election campaign,’ the pollsters wrote.  ‘… We find consistent evidence that President Obama’s 2008 first-time voters are less supportive than other Obama voters, reflecting a decline in enthusiasm among a key voting bloc in the 2012 elections.’” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)

  • “Asked If The President Deserves Reelection, Nearly 83% Of The New Voters Who Backed Mr. Obama Last Time Said Yes, Compared To About 91% Of Other Obama Voters.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)
  • 52% Of First-Time Obama Voters Strongly Agreed That “Obama Cares About People Like Me,” Compared To 64% Of Other Obama Voters.  “Nearly 52% of the new voters who cast ballots for the president strongly agreed with the statement, ‘Obama cares about people like me.’ By contrast, nearly 64% of other Obama voters strongly agreed with that statement.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)
  • 83% Of First-Time Obama Voters Say They Are “Definitely” Voting In 2012, Compared to 94% Of Other Obama Voters. “About 83% of the first-time Obama voters said they are ‘definitely voting’ in the ’12 election, compared to 94% of other Obama voters.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)
  • “Nearly 37% Of The New Voters Are Paying Less Attention To The Presidential Campaign Than They Did Four Years Ago, Compared To About 30% Of The Other Obama Voters.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)
  • “About 72% Of The New Voters Said Mr. Obama Would Do A Better Job Of Improving The Economy Than Mr. Romney, Compared To More Than 80% Of The Other Obama Voters.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)

Policy Research Lab Director Kirb Goidel: “In An Election Like This One That Is Turning Out To Be Really Competitive, Those Types Of Numbers Matter.” “‘In an election like this one that is turning out to be really competitive, those types of numbers matter,’ Mr. Goidel said in an interview.” (Peter Nicholas, “Poll: 2008’s New Voters Sour On Obama In 2012,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/31/12)

OBAMA IS FALLING BEHIND IN KEY STATES

Florida

Public Policy Polling: 50 Percent Of Florida Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 47 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 871 LV, MoE 3.3%, 7/26-7/29/12)

  • 54 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 39 Percent Approve. (Public Policy Polling, 871 LV, MoE 3.3%, 7/26-7/29/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: 47 Percent Of Florida Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 45 Percent Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1177 LV, MoE 2.9%, 7/24-7/30/12)

  • 52 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 38 Percent Of Independents Who Think Obama Would. (Quinnipiac University, 1177 LV, MoE 2.9%, 7/24-7/30/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: Florida Republicans Are 44 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 24 Percent Of Florida Democrats.  (Quinnipiac University, 1177 LV, MoE 2.9%, 7/24-7/30/12)

Pennsylvania

Susquehanna Polling & Research: 49 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters Believe Obama Doesn’t Deserve To Be Reelected, While Only 45 Percent Believe He Does. (Susquehanna Polling & Research, 800 LV, MoE 3.46, 7/19-7/23/12)

Quinnipiac University Poll: 35 Percent Of Pennsylvania Republicans Are More Enthusiastic To Vote In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 26 Percent Of Pennsylvania Democrats. (Quinnipiac University, 1168 LV, MoE 2.%, 7/24-7/30/12)

Susquehanna Polling & Research: 50 Percent Of Pennsylvania Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While Only 29 Percent Think It Is Headed In The Right Direction. (Susquehanna Polling & Research, 800 LV, MoE 3.46, 7/19-7/23/12)

Michigan

EPIC/MRA Poll: 55 Percent Of Michigan Voters Disapprove Of President Obama’s Job Performance, While 44 Percent Approve. (EPIC/MRA Poll, 600 LV, MoE 4%, 7/24-7/31/12)

EPIC/MRA Poll: 56 Percent Of Michigan Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While Only 31 Percent Think It Is Headed In The Right Direction. (EPIC/MRA Poll, 600 LV, MoE 4%, 7/24-7/31/12)


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