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Romney's Post-Debate Bump Is Here To Stay

- October 12, 2012

Gallup: Among Those Who Watched The Presidential Debate, 72 Percent Said Romney Did A Better Job, Compared To 20 Percent Who Thought Obama Did. "An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates. Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better job than Obama, 72% to 20%. Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job than Obama, 49% to 39%." (Jeffrey M. Jones, "Romney Narrows Vote Gap After Historic Debate Win," Gallup, 10/8/12)

  • Romney's 52-Point Win Is The Largest Margin Gallup Has Ever Measured. "Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney's 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate." (Jeffrey M. Jones, "Romney Narrows Vote Gap After Historic Debate Win," Gallup, 10/8/12)

"Mitt Romney Leads President Obama In Four New National Polls Released Thursday, An Indication Of Sustained Momentum For The GOP Challenger One Week After His Debate Victory." (Jonathan Easley, "Romney Ahead In Four New National Polls," The Hill, 10/11/12)

  • "Romney Leads By 3 Percentage Points In The Latest Reuters-Ispsos And UPI-Cvoter Polls. He Has 47 Percent Support Compared Obama's 44 In The Former, And A 49 Percent To 46 Per Cent Lead In The Latter." (Jonathan Easley, "Romney Ahead In Four New National Polls," The Hill, 10/11/12)
  • "The Race Is A Little Tighter In Surveys From Gallup And IBD-TIPP, Where Romney Leads 48 Percent To 47 Percent And 47 Percent To 46 Percent, Respectively." (Jonathan Easley, "Romney Ahead In Four New National Polls," The Hill, 10/11/12)

AMERICANS TRUST ROMNEY TO TURN AROUND THE ECONOMY

Pew Research Poll: 54 Percent Of Voters Don't Think Obama Knows How To Turn The Economy Around, While 44 Percent Think He Does. (Pew Research Poll, 1201 RV, 3.3% MoE, 10/4 - 7/12)

  • 49 Percent Of Voters Say Romney Would Do Better On Improving The Job Situation, While 41 Percent Say Obama Would. (Pew Research Poll, 1201 RV, 3.3% MoE, 10/4 - 7/12)
  • Pew Research Poll: 47 Percent Of Voters Say Romney Would Do Better On Improving Dealing With Taxes, While 43 Percent Say Obama Would. (Pew Research Poll, 1201 RV, 3.3% MoE, 10/4 - 7/12)
  • 51 Percent Of Voters Say Romney Would Do Better On Reducing The Federal Budget Deficit, While 36 Percent Say Obama Would. (Pew Research Poll, 1201 RV, 3.3% MoE, 10/4 - 7/12)

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: 45 Percent Of Voters Say That Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Economy, While 42 Percent Say Obama Would. (NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, 1000 RV, 3.1% MoE, 9/26-30/12)

  • NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: 43 Percent Of Voters Say That Romney Would Be Better At Creating Jobs, While 42 Percent Say Obama Would. ( NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll , 1000 RV, 3.1% MoE, 9/26-30/12)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: 45 Percent Of Voters Say That Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Economic Challenges We Face From China, While 37 Percent Say Obama Would. ( NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll , 1000 RV, 3.1% MoE, 9/26-30/12)
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: 43 Percent Of Voters Say That Romney Would Be Better At Handling The Federal Budget Deficit , While 34 Percent Say Obama Would. ( NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll , 1000 RV, 3.1% MoE, 9/26-30/12)

DEMOCRATS ARE FACING AN ENTHUSIASM GAP ACROSS SWING STATES

Politico 's James Hohmann: "President Barack Obama Has A Worsening Enthusiasm Problem." (James Hohmann, "Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems Less Enthusiastic," Politico, 10/8/12)

  • Polls Show A "Notable Shift Of Intensity From The Democrats To The Republicans Since The Party Conventions Over A Month Ago." "The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but there's been a notable shift of intensity from the Democrats to the Republicans since the party conventions over a month ago. Most of the poll's calls were made before Romney's strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver." (James Hohmann, "Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems Less Enthusiastic," Politico, 10/8/12)
  • "Among Those Extremely Likely To Vote, Romney Actually Leads Obama 52 Percent To 46 Percent." "Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are 'extremely likely' to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats. Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That's up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago." (James Hohmann, "Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems Less Enthusiastic," Politico, 10/8/12)
  • "The Percentages Among Key Democratic Constituencies Who Say They Are Extremely Likely To Vote Should Cause Concern In Chicago." "The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they're 'extremely likely' to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the 'extremely likely' to vote category." (James Hohmann, "Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems Less Enthusiastic," Politico, 10/8/12)

SWING STATE POLLS FAVOR ROMNEY

Colorado

American Research Group: Romney Leads Obama 50-46 Percent In Colorado. (American Research Group, 600 LV, MoE 4%, 10/5-10/8/12)

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll: Romney Leads Obama 48-47 Percent In Colorado. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1254 LV, MoE 2.8%, 10/4-10/9/12)

52 Percent Of Colorado Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 44 Percent Who Think Obama Would. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1254 LV, MoE 2.8%, 10/4-10/9/12)

54 Percent Of Colorado Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Federal Budget Deficit, While 40 Percent Think Obama Would. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1254 LV, MoE 2.8%, 10/4-10/9/12)

52 Percent Of Colorado Voters Disapprove Of President Obama's Job Performance, While 45 Percent Approve. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1254 LV, MoE 2.8%, 10/4-10/9/12)

Colorado Republicans Are 56 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 37 Percent Of Democrats. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1254 LV, MoE 2.8%, 10/4-10/9/12)

Florida

Rasmussen Reports: Romney Leads Obama 51-47 Percent In Florida. ( Rasmussen Reports , 750 LV, MoE 4%, 10/11/12)

American Research Group Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49-46 Percent In Florida. (American Research Group Poll, 600 LV, MoE 4%, 10/8-10/11/12)

Mason-Dixon Poll: Romney Leads Obama 51-44 Percent In Florida. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

50 Percent Of Florida Voters Trust Romney To Improve The Economy, While 44 Percent Trust Obama. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

  • 54 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Trust Romney To Improve The Economy, While 39 Percent Trust Obama. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

50 Percent of Florida Voters Trust Romney To Look Out For The Middle Class, While 47 Percent Trust Obama. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

  • 51 Percent Of Florida Independent Voters Trust Romney To Look Out For The Middle Class, While 44 Percent Trust Obama. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

54 Percent Of Florida Voters Disapprove Of Obama's Job Performance, While 44 Percent Approve. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

54 Percent Of Florida Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While 41 Percent Think It Is On The Right Track. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

50 Percent Of Florida Voters Don't Think They Are Better Off Than They Were Four Years Ago, While 44 Percent Think They Are. (Mason-Dixon Poll, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/8-10/10/12)

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: 48 Percent Of Likely Florida Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Economy, While 45 Percent Think Obama Would. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 988 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

52 Percent Of Florida Likely Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While 43 Percent Think It Is Headed In The Right Direction. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 988 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

New Hampshire

American Research Group Poll: Romney Leads Obama 50-46 Percent In New Hampshire. (American Research Group Poll, 600 LV, MoE 4%, 10/9-10/11/12)

North Carolina

Rasmussen Reports: Romney Leads Obama 51-48 Percent In North Carolina. ( Rasmussen Reports , 500 LV, MoE 4.5%, 10/9/12)

Gravis Marketing: Romney Leads Obama 49.9-41.2 Percent In North Carolina. (Gravis Marketing, 1325 LV, MoE 2.9%, 10/6-10/8/12)

Ohio

Gravis Marketing: 48.8 Percent Of Ohio Voters Disapprove Of Obama's Job Performance, While 41.4 Percent Approve. (Gravis Marketing, 1594 RV, MoE 2.7%, 10/6-10/10/12)

48.9 Percent Of Ohio Voters Think The Country Is Headed In The Wrong Direction, While 38.9 Percent Think It Is On The Right Track. (Gravis Marketing, 1594 RV, MoE 2.7%, 10/6-10/10/12)

SurveyUSA: 47 Percent Of Ohio Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Balancing The Budget, While 42 Percent Think Obama Would. (SurveyUSA, 808 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/5-10/8/12)

  • 47 Percent Of Ohio Independent Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Balancing The Budget, While 33 Percent Think Obama Would. (SurveyUSA, 808 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/5-10/8/12)

49 Percent Of Ohio Voters Oppose ObamaCare, While 35 Percent Support It. (SurveyUSA, 808 LV, MoE 3.5%, 10/5-10/8/12)

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: 50 Percent Of Ohio Likely Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While 46 Percent Think It Is Headed In The Right Direction. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 994 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

Virginia

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Leads Obama 48-47 Percent Among Likely Voters In Virginia. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 981 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

48 Percent Of Likely Virginia Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Handling The Economy, While 45 Percent Think Obama Would. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 981 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

52 Percent Of Likely Virginia Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track While 44 Percent Think It Is Headed In The Right Direction. (NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll, 981 LV, MoE 3.1%, 10/7-10/9/12)

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll: 51 Percent Of Virginia Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Federal Budget Deficit, While 43 Percent Think Obama Would. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1288 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)

Virginia Republicans Are 48 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 40 Percent Of Democrats. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1288 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)

Wisconsin

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll: 49 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job Of Handling The Economy Than 47 Percent Who Think Obama Would. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1327 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)

53 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Think Romney Would Do A Better Job On The Federal Budget Deficit, While 41 Percent Think Obama Would. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1327 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)

49 Percent Of Wisconsin Voters Disapprove Of President Obama's Job Performance, While 47 Percent Approve. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1327 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)

Wisconsin Republicans Are 57 Percent More Enthusiastic About Voting In The 2012 Presidential Election Compared To 36 Percent Of Democrats. ( Quinnipiac University/CBS News/The New York Times Poll , 1327 LV, MoE 2.7%, 10/4-10/9/12)


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