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Virginia Early Vote Stats

RNC Communications - October 24, 2012

Wanted to share with you some good data and analysis on Virginia early vote Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report and Josh Kraushaar of National Journal were tweeting this afternoon.

Key takeaway: Turnout and enthusiasm is up in Virginia’s reddest counties and in coal country and down in Obama’s strongholds. 

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261189675283255297

Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261192786013995010

3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261191303453343745

Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261190453033062402

 Virginia Early Vote (con't): Obama drop-off just half of the equation. Let's take a look at the top 25 localities with an increase...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261200010216079360

 Coal-heavy SW VA in Top 10 early vote surges: 5) Dickenson (+66.8%) 6) Buchanan (+63.6%), 10) Bland (+47.4%). Apathy in '08, anger in '12.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261201163003764737

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh

As @Redistrict pointed out to me, Richmond City, Charlottesville city & Arlington Co. among the biggest early vote dropoffs from '08-'12.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/261190164242628609

Suggests distinctly less enthusiasm among Afr-American, college-age/young voters in VA this time around.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/261190289459404801

It's also the VA early vote numbers that makes me awfully skeptical of the O spin on GOTV. VA is the epicenter of college/minority vote.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/261192930470031361

 

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