Wanted to share with you some good data and analysis on Virginia early vote Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report and Josh Kraushaar of National Journal were tweeting this afternoon.
Key takeaway: Turnout and enthusiasm is up in Virginia’s reddest counties and in coal country and down in Obama’s strongholds.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/
Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote
3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)
Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama
Virginia Early Vote (con't): Obama drop-off just half of the equation. Let's take a look at the top 25 localities with an increase...
Coal-heavy SW VA in Top 10 early vote surges: 5) Dickenson (+66.8%) 6) Buchanan (+63.6%), 10) Bland (+47.4%). Apathy in '08, anger in '12.
Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
As @Redistrict pointed out to me, Richmond City, Charlottesville city & Arlington Co. among the biggest early vote dropoffs from '08-'12.
Suggests distinctly less enthusiasm among Afr-American, college-age/young voters in VA this time around.
It's also the VA early vote numbers that makes me awfully skeptical of the O spin on GOTV. VA is the epicenter of college/minority vote.
Elections Election 2012