Wages Keep Climbing, And Unemployment Keeps Falling

Amid Climbing Wages And Historically Low Unemployment, More Americans Are Getting Off The Sidelines And Reaping The Benefits Of The Trump Economy

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TOP TAKEAWAYS

• February marked the 7^th straight month of 3% or better wage growth as gains reached 3.4%, the best in a decade.
  • This was "hugely positive," and "easily the best of the economic recovery that began nearly 10 years ago," beating economists' predictions of 3.2 percent wage growth.
  • New York Times economic reporter Ben Casselman left no room for any Democrat doubters saying, "wage growth is very clearly accelerating."
• The national unemployment rate remained at or below 4% for the 12 ^th straight month in February, and groups who have historically suffered from high employment like non-high school grads and Hispanic-Americans saw record low unemployment rates.
  • The unemployment rate for Hispanic-American reached a new record low.
• The labor force participation rate remained at a 5 year high as Americans left behind by President Obama are flooding back into the labor market thanks to President Trump's pro-worker policies.
  • President Trump's booming economy has brought a "sizable" number of Americans, particularly women, back into the labor market, reversing the "alarming" exodus of workers that occurred under President Obama.

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WAGES CLIMBED 3.4% IN FEBRUARY, THE SEVENTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF WAGE GAINS 3% OR HIGHER, AND THE BEST SHOWING IN A DECADE

Wage Growth Hit (Another) 10-Year High In February, Particularly For Those Who Need It Most

According To February's Jobs Report, Nominal Average Hourly Wages Have Risen By 3.4 Percent Over The Past 12 Months, Marking The 7 ^th Straight Month Year-Over-Year Wage Gains Were At Or Above 3 Percent . ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 3/8/19)

• Average Hourly Earnings Increased By 3.4 Percent On Year Over Year In February, "Easily The Best Of The Economic Recovery That Began Nearly 10 Years Ago" And Beating Economists' Expectations Of 3.2 Percent Wage Growth. "There was other good news in the report: Average hourly earnings increased by 3.4 percent on year over year, easily the best of the economic recovery that began nearly 10 years ago. That compares with a 1.5 percent increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers from January 2018 to January 2019. Economists had been expecting a wage increase of 3.2 percent." (Jeff Cox, "Job Creation Grinds To A Near-Halt In February; Wages Still On The Rise," CNBC , 3/8/19)

Beth Ann Bovino, Chief U.S. Economist At S&P Noted Wages Are Now "Well Above The Cost Of Living" As They Continue To Post "Strong" Growth. "Wages grew 3.4 percent in the past year, the best annual gain since April 2009, when the United States was in the Great Recession. Wages are now growing well above the cost of living. Inflation has been just 1.6 percent in the past year, according to the Commerce Department. 'If the party was over, we wouldn't see those wages coming in so strong,' said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P. 'A lot of the weakness in hiring looks like it was due to seasonal factors like very cold weather.'" (Heather Long, "U.S. Economy Adds Just 20,000 Jobs In February, Well Below Expectations," The Washington Post , 3/8/19)

Wages Have "Been Rising Fastest For The Lowest Earning Workers." "The gains are also starting to show up in some lower-skilled jobs. Wages have generally been rising fastest for the lowest earning workers, a sign that it's getting harder to find people for all kinds of jobs even in restaurants and retail and that minimum wage increases in 19 states in January are having an impact." (Heather Long, "U.S. Economy Adds Just 20,000 Jobs In February, Well Below Expectations," The Washington Post , 3/8/19)

CNN Business' Paul La Monica Noted That Wage Growth Is "Continuing To Accelerate." "Some good news in the jobs report gloom? Wage growth continuing to accelerate. Up 3.4% over past 12 months." (Paul R. La Monica, Twitter Feed , 3/8/19)

The New York Times' Economic Reporter Ben Casselman Said "Wage Growth Is Very Clearly Accelerating." "Wage growth is very clearly accelerating. At 3.4% year-over-year, it's now the fastest of the recovery." (Ben Casselman, Twitter Feed , 3/8/19)

It Took "Almost 10 Years" To Get "Hugely Positive" Wage Growth Like This. DAGEN MCDOWELL: "If you look at the wage gains though, because wages are rising at 3.4% from a year earlier that is faster than expected and also the fastest pace that we've seen since April 2009. So almost 10 years, it's taken this long to get to wage growth like this. This is hugely positive." (Fox Business' "Live," 3/8/19)

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Even Present Obama's CEA Chair Applauded The Unemployment And Wage Growth In Today's Report. JOE KERNEN: "You always tell me it's the end of the cycle Jason. Jason what do you think?" JASON FURMAN: "You know, you don't want to read too much into one number. you want to be looking at this we'll want to be studying the details of this. The unemployment rate remains low. wage growth remains strong you want to average numbers like this over a couple months." (CNBC's "Squawk Box," 3/8/19)

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The Unemployment Rate Continued Its Historically Low Run In February, And Was Particularly Low For Groups That Have Historically Struggled With High Unemployment Rates

The Unemployment Rate Dropped To 3.8% In February, Marking A Full Year Of Unemployment At Or Below 4%, The Longest Streak In Almost 50 Years. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 3/8/19)

Beth Ann Bovino, Chief U.S. Economist At S&P Emphasized That That The Unemployment Rate For The Least Educated Americans Fell To 5.3 Percent, Its Lowest Rate Ever, Another Sign That "People On The Sidelines Are Searching For Jobs And Finding Work Again After Years Of Struggle. "Bovino noted that the unemployment rate for Americans with less than a high school diploma fell from 5.7 percent to 5.3 percent, the lowest level since the Labor Department began tracking that statistic in the early 1990s. She says it's another sign that the job market is still strong enough that people on the sidelines are searching for jobs and finding work again after years of struggle." (Heather Long, "U.S. Economy Adds Just 20,000 Jobs In February, Well Below Expectations," The Washington Post , 3/8/19)

Unemployment For Hispanic Americans Was 4.3% In February, The Lowest It Has Ever Been Since The Rate Was First Tracked In 1973. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 3/8/19)

AMERICANS FORGOTTEN BY PRESIDENT OBAMA ARE FLOODING BACK INTO THE LABOR MARKET THANKS TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PRO-GROWTH POLICIES

Under President Obama, Millions Found Them On The Sidelines Of The Economy In Part Because They Lacked The Skills And Training To Succeed

Economists Speculated That Millions Of Americans Were "Structurally Unemployed" Because They Lacked Job Training Skills Needed To Succeed. "Economists had speculated that millions of these people lacked necessary qualifications or were otherwise deemed undesirable by employers and might not work again. They were thought to be, in economic parlance, 'structurally' unemployed." (Christopher Rugaber, "A Hot US Job Market Is Coaxing People In From The Sidelines," The Associated Press , 3/7/19)

Thanks To President Trump, Millions Of These Previously Forgotten Workers Are Now Gainfully Employed And Reaping The Benefits Of The Trump Economy

A Survey Found That 54 Percent Of Employers Invested In Training Programs In 2018, Up From Just 20 Percent Four Years Earlier. "A survey by Manpower found that 54 percent of employers invested in training programs in 2018, up from just 20 percent four years earlier. One-third said they're adjusting their education and experience requirements, with some no longer requiring a college degree." (Christopher Rugaber, "A Hot US Job Market Is Coaxing People In From The Sidelines," The Associated Press , 3/7/19)

President Trump Signed An Executive Order On Workforce Development, Establishing The National Council For The American Worker Which Will Develop A "National Strategy To Train Americans For The Skills They Need To Fill Open Jobs Now And In The Future." "The executive order also establishes the National Council for the American Worker, which will consist of cabinet members and senior White House officials. They are charged with developing a national strategy to train Americans for the skills they need to fill open jobs now and in the future. The order also created the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board that will bring together governors with business executives and educators." (Katie Lobosco, "Employers Commit To Train 3.8 Million Workers Under Trump Executive Order," CNN , 7/19/18)

• So Far, 200 Companies And Associations Have Signed The Administration's Pledge To America's Workers, Promising To Create More Than 6.5 Million Education, Training And Skill-Building Opportunities Over The Next Five Years. "The White House said 200 companies and associations have signed the administration's Pledge to America's Workers, promising to create more than 6.5 million education, training and skill-building opportunities over the next five years. 'The top priority for companies competing in the digital economy has to be investing in people,' said Barbara Humpton, the chief executive officer of Siemens USA, a member of the board." (Margaret Talev, "Wilbur Ross, Ivanka Trump Introduce Workforce Advisory Board," Bloomberg , 2/13/19)

In Expanding Apprenticeship Programs, The White House Took A "Concrete" Step Towards Addressing "The Employment Prospects Of Workers Left Behind By The Current Economic Expansion." " President Trump is taking one of the most concrete steps of his presidency on Thursday to address the employment prospects of workers left behind by the current economic expansion. In doing so, he also joins a long-running and occasionally contentious debate over whether those workers have the skills they need to land desirable jobs." (Noam Scheiber, "Trump Move On Job Training Brings 'Skills Gap' Debate To The Fore," The New York Times , 6/15/17)

These Programs Have Helped Millions Of Previously Forgotten Americans, Particularly Women, Take Part In The Booming Economy As The Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At A 5 Year High

The Labor Force Participation Rate Remained At A 5 Year High Of 63.2 Percent In February. "The labor-force participation rate was unchanged at a five-year high of 63.2 percent, while the employment-population ratio, another broad measure of labor-market health, held at 60.7 percent." (Jeff Kearns, "U.S. Payroll Gains Plunge To 20,000 While Wages Top Estimates," Bloomberg , 3/8/19)

A "Sizable Chunk" Of Workers Coming Off The Sidelines Are Young Women, Particularly Hispanic Women, "Reversing A Long Decline." "A sizable chunk of workers who have joined the labor force over the past three years have been young women 25 to 34, reversing a long decline. Hispanic women, whose jobless rate has been cruising along at historically low levels, accounted for a disproportionate share of the new entrants. Although they make up less than one-fifth of prime-age women - those 25 to 54 years old - they accounted for almost two-thirds of the increase in female participation rates since 2015, according to the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. One cause could be a striking drop in the birthrate among Hispanic women, which fell 31 percent from 2007 to 2017. Many of these women are delaying childbearing to finish school and start careers, according to the Pew Research Center." (Patricia Cohen, "Weak Jobs Report Clouds The Economic Picture," The New York Times , 3/8/19)

President Trump's Booming Economy Has Reversed The "Alarming" Exit Of Millions Of Americans From The Job Market During President Obama's Presidency. "The growth in America's workforce - made up of people either working or looking for work - has helped reverse an alarming consequence of the recession: The exit of millions of Americans from the job market. For five years after the Great Recession ended in 2009, many Americans gave up on their job hunts. Some suffered from disabilities. Others enrolled in school or stayed home to raise children. Still others were stymied by criminal pasts or failed drug tests. Some just felt discouraged by their job prospects. Because they weren't actively seeking work, they weren't even counted as unemployed." (Christopher Rugaber, "A Hot US Job Market Is Coaxing People In From The Sidelines," The Associated Press , 3/7/19)

The Number Of People Who Either Have A Job Or Are Looking For One Grew 1.6 Percent In 2018, Sharply Higher Than The Average Annual Gain Of 0.4 Percent In The First Five Years After The Recession. "Partly as a result, the number of people who either have a job or are looking for one grew 1.6 percent in 2018, sharply higher than the average annual gain of 0.4 percent in the first five years after the recession. The rebound has confounded many experts' projections. The Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated the likelihood of more people finding jobs. In 2013, its policymakers estimated that 'full employment' - the lowest point to which unemployment was thought capable of reaching without sparking higher inflation - would arrive when the unemployment rate was between 5.2 percent and 5.8 percent." (Christopher Rugaber, "A Hot US Job Market Is Coaxing People In From The Sidelines," The Associated Press , 3/7/19)

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