RNC Releases Nationwide Polling and Modeling Memo ahead of Midterms

WASHINGTON – Today, the Republican National Committee (RNC) released a new nationwide polling and modeling memo ahead of the midterm elections to share with Republican campaigns. GOP polling found that voters have made clear this election is about rising prices and the economy and if Republican candidates hold their Democrat opponents accountable for their failed policies and show compassion while presenting their solutions, Republicans will win. Additionally, the RNC and partner Data Trust have live segments of voters who are the best targets for these messages that are available free of charge for campaign use.  
 
"While Biden and out-of-touch Democrats refuse to address the economic peril they created, voters have made it abundantly clear that this election is about the economy and crime,” said RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. “Meanwhile, Republican candidates are meeting voters where they are and discussing the issues they care about, from the economy to crime and safety. In November, voters will turn to the candidates who showed compassion and solutions for their concerns, which is why Republicans are in the strongest position to take back the House and Senate."  
 
Through that research, the RNC builds broad-based universes that help Republicans up and down the ballot target more efficiently and win elections. In addition to the findings in this memo, because the RNC conducted research in a way that combined both polling and modeling, the RNC and partner Data Trust have live segments of voters who are the best targets for these messages that are available free of charge for campaign use.
 
Key Takeaways: 

• Economy: Voters have made clear this election is about rising prices and the economy. 
• Trust in the GOP: A vast majority of voters trust the GOP to fix the economy: 61 million blame Biden and trust the GOP, 20 million unsure on blame and trust the GOP, 52 million blame pent-up consumer demand and corporate greed but trust the GOP. 
• Economy vs. Abortion: 55% said rising prices, while 38% said abortion among all voters, 62% said rising prices, while 28% said abortion among independent voters. 
• Crime: Republicans lead Democrats by 16-points on the issue of crime.
• Democrats’ extreme stance on Abortion: A majority of voters disagree with Democrats’ extreme stance on abortion, including a majority of independent voters. 
• Education: Republicans have reduced the Democrat’s typical double digit (20-points) lead on the issue of education to just low single digits.

Process: During the 2022 cycle, the RNC brought together several research methods to provide deep analysis, targetable universes, and effective messaging. This included a baseline national model built from 60,000 completes, three national updates, three national polls conducted by KAConsulting & The Tarrance Group, a national issue importance model, and dozens of state and district specific projects. The findings in this memo come from those efforts. 

To read the memo, click here.  
To read more about the memo in The Hill, click here.