February 11, 2026 | Research | Adam Brauns

January Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Research

January Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

The January Jobs Report Blew Past Economists’ Expectations Proving That The Trump Economy Is Hot
                                        

MORE JOBS, WAGES ARE UP, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS DOWN
  • This morning’s jobs report showed the economy gained 130,000 jobs in January.
  • Under President Trump, 100% of job growth is in the private sector and the economy has added hundreds of thousands of private sector jobs since he took office.
  • Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 327,000.
  • Between January and December 2025, two million native-born Americans have gained employment, while 662,000 foreign-born workers have lost employment.
    • 1.8 million native-born Americans have joined the labor force, while 881,000 foreign-born workers have left the labor force.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, beating expectations.
  • The January jobs report showed average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% from last month. 
  • Average hourly earnings are up 3.7% from one year ago.
  • After years of massive price increases under Biden, inflation has plummeted with the latest data showing core inflation at its lowest point in five years.
  • Productivity jumped from 3.3% to 4.9%, the fastest pace in two years.
PRICES ARE COMING DOWNGAS AND ENERGY PRICES ARE DOWN FROM BIDEN-ERA RECORD HIGHS
  • Biden oversaw the most expensive gas in the nation’s history when average gas prices reached $4.93 in June of 2022.
  • Gas prices have hit a four-year low under President Trump as averages have fallen below $3 per gallon.
  • Americans are on track to spend the least amount of their disposable income on gas in the past two decades.
  • 2025 gas prices averaged their lowest since 2020
  • Households heated by propane or heating oil will pay less to heat their homes this winter than last winter.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BRINGING DOWN DRUG PRICES
  • Thanks to his unprecedented effort to get pharmaceutical companies to lower their prices for Americans, the president was able to launch TrumpRX
    • This direct-to-consumer government website will allow Americans to purchase drugs at a discounted price negotiated by the government.
  • President Trump is working to lower drug prices for Americans with his Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing plan.
    • Thanks to an executive order signed by President Trump, Americans will pay less for prescription drugs.
    • In July, President Trump sent a letter to the leading pharmaceutical manufacturers outlining how they must bring down the cost of prescription drugs to match the lowest price of other nations.
    • President Trump has since announced over a dozen deals with major pharmaceutical manufacturers to bring drug prices down including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Eli Lilly.
    • These unprecedented deals will lower costs for inhalersarthritis medication, obesity drugs, and infertility medicine.
HOUSING AND RENT COSTS ARE COMING DOWN
  • National median rent has fallen five months in a row as rent prices fell 0.8% in December.
  • President Trump is making it more affordable for Americans to buy a home.
    • Under the Biden administration, mortgage rates hit a 22-year high.
    • President Trump has brought down the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from over 7% when he took office to 6.1% today.
    • Mortgage affordability is at a four-year high after rates fell in January.
    • National median rent fell in January, marking the sixth consecutive month that rents have declined.
    • President Trump has vowed to lower mortgages with $200 billion bond purchases.
INVESTMENTS IN AMERICA ARE SURGING AND THE ECONOMY IS GROWING
  • Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, companies have invested trillions of dollars into U.S.-based operations, creating thousands of jobs for Americans.
    • These sectors include manufacturing, technology, AI, pharmaceuticals, and energy.
    • These opportunities are going to American born workers.
  • The President’s Working Families Tax Cut will save or create up to 7.4 million jobs over the next four years.
  • The Atlanta Fed 4th Quarter GDP growth estimate increased to 5.4%.
  • Last week, the Dow hit 50,000 for the first time ever.
  • Trump Accounts – a historic new savings tool created under the working Families Tax Cuts – are a way to invest in America’s children so they can accumulate wealth by the time they are adults and are now live.
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE WORKING
  • President Trump’s tariffs are expected to raise $2.8 trillion through 2034 and grow the economy.
  • The trade deficit has narrowed to its lowest level since 2009 thanks to President Trump’s America First agenda. 
    • U.S. exports are up 6% over last year, the second-highest number on record.
    • The seasonally adjusted trade deficit with China has narrowed to its second-smallest since 2009.
    • The Treasury Department recorded a surplus of $198 billion in tariff revenue which was the largest surplus of any September on record.
    • An analysis from the Congressional Budget Office projected that President Trump’s tariffs will reduce total deficits by up to $4 trillion over the next decade.
  • President Trump detailed the success of his tariffs in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed.
REPUBLICAN STATES ARE LEADING THE CHARGE
  • 16 of the top 20 states with the lowest unemployment rates are led by Republican governors.
    • Meanwhile 9 of the states 13 states with the highest unemployment rates are led by Democrat governors.